Meteorologists Increasingly Focus on Attribution Science

From the scorching heat waves devastating the southern United States to the raging wildfires in Canada, scientists are now able to attribute these extreme weather events to climate change. However, the challenge lies in distinguishing between natural weather phenomena and the extent to which human-influenced climate change contributes to these events. Attribution science has emerged as a crucial field of study to not only identify and quantify the influence of climate change but also determine its role in causing extreme weather.

The study and application of attribution science began two decades ago, but it has gained significant attention in recent years due to the increasing intensity and frequency of extreme weather events worldwide. It has become crucial for meteorologists and risk communicators to focus on this area, as short-term atmospheric changes (meteorology) are interconnected with long-term climate variations. With advancements in computing power, climate modeling, and observational data, scientists can now quickly establish direct correlations between climate change and certain extreme weather events.

So, what exactly is attribution science? It is a rapidly growing field that examines whether extreme weather events like hurricanes, heat waves, and flooding are caused or influenced by climate change. The first authoritative study in this field was published in Nature in 2004, which surprisingly concentrated on heatwaves. Since then, extensive research and scientific evidence have successfully linked extreme weather events to climate change. The case of Hurricane Harvey serves as an excellent example, where research demonstrated that climate change led to a substantial increase in rainfall due to elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide levels resulting from human reliance on fossil fuels.

Furthermore, studies focusing on heatwaves and drought have also shown a connection between extreme weather events and climate change. For instance, research published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences confirms that climate change has doubled the area burned by wildfires in the western United States and contributed to a significant increase in large fires in California. While these findings underscore the intensification of extreme weather events due to climate change, they also provide actionable insights for businesses and municipalities in vulnerable regions. Knowledge of the potential for such events can influence infrastructure decisions, business strategies, and the demand for resilience measures. Attribution science is not only raising public awareness about climate change’s impact on extreme weather but also influencing policy and planning on a global scale.

Is attribution science proving that climate change is the sole cause of extreme weather events? This is not a black-and-white scenario, as weather events can have multiple causes. Attribution science is a discipline that deals with probabilities, observability, validity, and evolving knowledge. Climate variability and extreme weather events have been observed for centuries, with documented instances such as extreme drought leading to the downfall of the Mayan civilization or the White Hurricane of 1913 claiming numerous lives with its blizzard conditions and hurricane-force winds.

By employing climate attribution methods, scientists can calculate the likelihood that a past weather event would have occurred without climate change. For example, a recent study concluded that climate change made the April heat wave that hit Western Europe and Northwest Africa at least 100 times more likely to happen.

As attribution science continues to expand, both in terms of knowledge and researchers specializing in this field, meteorology will play a vital role in bridging the gap between climate change and weather events. With further development, attribution science has the potential to establish itself as a recognized meteorological discipline, similar to hydrology, data science, and broadcast meteorology.

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