The Possibility of Italy’s Supervolcano Erupting is Higher Than Initially Estimated

A recent study by researchers from University College London (UCL) and Italy’s National Research Institute for Geophysics and Volcanology (INGV) reveals that the Campi Flegrei or Phlegrean fields are more likely to erupt than previously thought. The supervolcano that hosts the Phlegrean fields erupted approximately 37,000 years ago with a Volcanic Explosivity Index of 7, at least 100 times more powerful than the eruption of Mount Vesuvius in 79 AD. This massive eruption formed a caldera 12 kilometers across, and the caldera itself erupted again 15,000 years ago. Since the large eruptions, there have been 56 smaller eruptions, with the most recent happening in 1538, forming a volcanic cone known as Monte Nuovo (the New Mountain).

The Phlegrean fields are still active today and have had spikes of seismic unrest in the 1950s, 1970s, and 1980s, along with a slower phase of unrest over the last decade. Tens of thousands of small earthquakes have occurred during these periods, and the coastal town of Pozzuoli has risen by nearly 4 meters.

The researchers concluded that parts of the volcano had been stretched nearly to the breaking point after combining patterns of earthquakes and ground uplift rate with known rock strength values. This is the first time they have used their model based on the physics of rock fracturing in real-time to evaluate a volcano. “Our new study confirms that Campi Flegrei is moving closer to rupture,” said Christopher Kilburn, Professor at UCL and lead author of the new study.

The observed increase in seismic activity over the last years has been caused by volcanic gases and fluids seeping into gaps in the rock, filling the three-kilometer thick crust over the magma chamber like a sponge. The rocks in the crust can respond in two ways to this increasing pressure: in an elastic way by bending or in an inelastic way by breaking. The pattern of earthquakes from 2020 suggests the rock is responding in an inelastic manner, forming cracks underground, which can act as a gateway for magma to erupt to the surface.

The researchers emphasized that their model does not predict specific eruptions, but suggests an eruption is more likely to happen as rock strength slowly decreases. The study was published in the journal Communications Earth & Environment (2023).

Study co-author Dr. Stefano Carlino from the Vesuvius Observatory concluded that “it’s the same for all volcanoes that have been quiet for generations. Campi Flegrei may settle into a new routine of gently rising and subsiding, as seen at similar volcanoes around the world, or simply return to rest. We can’t yet say for sure what will happen. The important point is to be prepared for all outcomes.”

Source: Material provided by the University College London.

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