The role of climate change in heightening the risk of wildfires cannot be ignored. The world is, on average, 1.2°C warmer than in the pre-industrial climate, and this extra heat is bringing more frequent heatwaves and droughts. These weather conditions make the environment more fire-prone, and their increasing frequency has exposed already fire-susceptible regions such as the Mediterranean to greater risk of disaster.
Scientists use a fire weather index to estimate how flammable vegetation becomes under a set of weather conditions including temperature, humidity, wind speed, and how recently rain fell. In the Mediterranean, the frequency of extreme values on this index has increased faster than virtually anywhere else on Earth since the late 20th century. As a result, the Mediterranean now faces 29 additional days of extreme fire weather a year. Greece’s recent bout of extreme fire weather emerged from a heat wave that would have been at least 50 times less likely in the pre-industrial climate. Days with extreme fire weather are set to increase through to 2100 if emissions are not reduced.
Due to changes in the global climate, the UN Environment Programme predicts an increase in extreme wildfires of up to 14% by 2030 and 50% by 2100. Even at 1.5°C of warming (the threshold nations pledged to halt temperature rise to as part of the 2015 Paris Agreement), a 40% greater area is expected to burn in the Mediterranean.
When attributing the cause of a wildfire, it is important to distinguish between the factors that cause a fire to ignite and those that cause vegetation to become so dry that they are primed to burn. Climate change alone cannot ignite a fire—a spark from an ignition source or lightning is necessary. Arsonists were blamed for starting at least some of the fires in Greece, although arson is actually a minor cause of wildfires in the country. Of the past Greek wildfires with a verified ignition cause, only 23% were caused by arson. Most arose from fires on farmland initially started to burn crop waste or encourage new growth of pasture grasses, or from fires on scrubland and grassland that were lit to manage unwanted vegetation.
The frequency of extreme fire weather will accelerate if global warming exceeds 2°C, but the world can still avoid the most severe outcomes by rapidly reducing emissions of greenhouse gases. It is not too late to stop burning the fossil fuels that are driving climate change and extreme weather.
Regions like the Mediterranean have naturally fire-prone landscapes, and it is unrealistic to expect people to exclude fire from their lives completely. Society must learn to adapt and live with fire while increasing preparations for more extreme fires in the future. Wildfire budgets have historically prioritized fighting active fires. For example, in Greece, 92% of the national budget for forest fires was devoted to suppressing fires during the 2010s, with only 8% devoted to preventing them in the first place.
As well as investing in firefighting teams and equipment, countries should develop better early-warning systems, evacuation plans, fire-resistant buildings, and computer models of fire behavior. Programs that make communities more aware of their role in fire safety, including stopping arson and accidental ignitions, are also critical. In many parts of the Mediterranean, decades of rural land being abandoned have caused vegetation to grow more densely than in the past. This denser vegetation can mean more fuel for wildfires, promoting more intense burning. One option to keep this fuel in check is to use controlled burns during safe weather windows.
The wildfires in Greece are a stark reminder of the threat posed by climate change, and the costliness of missing international targets to reduce emissions. Decisive action to curb emissions, manage fuels on the landscape, and prepare communities can still lower the risks that fires will pose in the future.
Greece wildfires: How climate change is involved, and what we can do about it (2023, July 29) retrieved 29 July 2023 from https://phys.org/news/2023-07-greece-wildfires-climate-involved.html
To estimate the combustibility of vegetation under various weather conditions, including temperature, humidity, wind speed, and recent rainfall, scientists employ a fire weather index. In the Mediterranean, the frequency of extreme values on this index has risen at a faster rate than anywhere else on Earth since the late 20th century. Consequently, the Mediterranean now experiences 29 additional days of extreme fire weather per year. The recent extreme fire weather in Greece resulted from a heatwave that would have been at least 50 times less likely in the pre-industrial era. Unless emissions are reduced, the number of days with extreme fire weather will continue to increase until 2100.
The UN Environment Programme predicts a potential increase of up to 14% in extreme wildfires by 2030 and 50% by 2100 due to global climate changes. Even with a warming of only 1.5°C (the temperature increase limit set by nations under the 2015 Paris Agreement), it is expected that an area 40% greater in size will be ravaged by fires in the Mediterranean.
When attributing the cause of a wildfire, it is crucial to differentiate between the factors that ignite a fire and those that render vegetation so dry that it becomes primed for combustion. Climate change alone cannot cause a fire—it requires a spark from an ignition source or lightning. Although arson was blamed for some of the fires in Greece, it is actually a minor cause of wildfires in the country. Only 23% of past Greek wildfires with verifiable ignition causes were due to arson. Most of the fires originated from farmland, where burning crop waste or promoting new growth of pasture grasses was the initial intention, or from scrubland and grassland fires aimed at managing unwanted vegetation.
The frequency of extreme fire weather will escalate if global warming exceeds 2°C. However, by swiftly reducing greenhouse gas emissions, it is still possible to avert the most devastating consequences. It is not too late to cease burning fossil fuels, which are the driving force behind climate change and extreme weather events.
Regions like the Mediterranean naturally have landscapes prone to fires, making it unrealistic to expect fire exclusion. Instead, society must learn to adapt and coexist with fire while enhancing preparations for increasingly extreme fires in the future. Historically, wildfire budgets have primarily prioritized firefighting operations. For instance, in Greece, 92% of the national forest fire budget during the 2010s was allocated for fire suppression, with a meager 8% dedicated to prevention.
In addition to investing in firefighting teams and equipment, countries should develop advanced early-warning systems, evacuation plans, fire-resistant structures, and computer models to predict fire behavior. It is crucial to implement programs that raise communities’ awareness of their role in fire safety, including preventing arson and accidental ignitions. In many parts of the Mediterranean, decades of rural land abandonment have led to denser vegetation growth compared to the past. This increased vegetation density provides more fuel for wildfires, resulting in more intense burning. Conducting controlled burns during safe weather conditions is one possible method to control this excess fuel.
The wildfires in Greece serve as a stark reminder of the threat posed by climate change and the costly ramifications of not meeting international emissions reduction targets. It is still possible to mitigate future fire risks through decisive actions to reduce emissions, manage fuel loads in the landscape, and prepare communities.
Greece wildfires: How climate change is involved, and what we can do about it (2023, July 29) retrieved 29 July 2023 from https://phys.org/news/2023-07-greece-wildfires-climate-involved.html
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