The Uncertain Future of Antarctica
A groundbreaking research paper by the University of Exeter reveals that the pristine continent of Antarctica is facing an uncertain future in terms of its oceans, atmosphere, and ecology. Climate change is causing extreme weather events in this southernmost region, which in turn impacts global sea levels and ecosystems (source).
The latest Antarctic study reveals a continent teetering on a dangerous climate precipice
Key Facts
Published in Frontiers in Environmental Science, the research paper provides a comprehensive review of past data and extreme weather events in Antarctica. It concludes that the region will experience increasingly frequent and extreme weather events, including ice loss and ocean heat waves.
Recent extreme weather events in Antarctica, such as a record-breaking heat wave, may be attributed to human-caused greenhouse gas emissions. Temperatures soared to 38.5°C above the seasonal average, reaching a single-day high of -10.1°C or 13.8°F last year—unusually hot for Antarctica.
The authors of the paper warn that continued sea ice loss could create a harmful cycle. Reduced ice size decreases Antarctica’s ability to deflect solar radiation and may accelerate melting. This year, winter sea ice formation in the area reached a record low with one million square miles of ice missing (source).
Warmer Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW), found 200 to 400 meters below the water’s surface, poses another threat to Antarctica. Heating oceans could erode underwater ice shelves and cause glaciers to break apart.
Higher water temperatures also endanger the region’s ecology. Krill, a vital part of the food chain, thrive within the 0.5°C and 1°C temperature range. Past temperature increases have resulted in population crashes that affect multiple levels of the food chain.
What To Watch For
According to the authors, greenhouse gas emissions will contribute to more frequent extreme weather events in Antarctica. Policymakers need to evaluate whether current climate measures are sufficient to fulfill international promises of protecting the continent.
Key Background
When thinking of heatwaves and flooding, Antarctica, the coldest place on Earth, is not the first place that comes to mind. However, with its 5.3 million square miles of glaciers, Antarctica is the largest ice source globally and plays a crucial role in regulating ocean temperatures and deflecting sunlight. The complete melting of its glaciers, comprising six million cubic miles of water, could lead to a rise in sea levels of 200 feet. Additionally, the collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), a key current system, is expected to occur earlier than predicted. Antarctica is also home to a delicate marine ecosystem and holds deep climate history in its ice. Although it is internationally protected, the continent grows more fragile each year. The recent climate extremes in Antarctica are a warning sign of what the future holds for this critical region.
Tangent
Last weekend, the Alaskan capital of Juneau experienced a glacial lake outburst, which occurs when water from melted glaciers breaks through fragile dams. The water levels from Mendenhall Lake reached a record height of 14.97 feet, resulting in destructive flooding (source). The frequency of glacial lake outbursts is expected to increase in the future.
Key Number
34 million—that’s how long the Antarctic glaciers have existed. These glaciers are currently contributing six times more mass to the world’s oceans compared to 30 years ago (source).
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