Since mid-March 2023, ocean temperatures have reached unprecedented levels, marking the highest average in four decades of satellite monitoring. This significant impact is causing disruptions worldwide. The sea of Japan is experiencing temperatures more than 7 degrees Fahrenheit (4 degrees Celsius) higher than the average. The Indian monsoon, which heavily relies on conditions in the warm Indian Ocean, has been much weaker than expected. Spain, France, England, and the entire Scandinavian Peninsula are also observing rainfall levels far below normal, which is likely linked to an exceptional marine heat wave in the eastern North Atlantic. The sea surface temperatures in this region have been 1.8 to 5 F (1 to 3 C) above average, stretching from the coast of Africa to Iceland.
So, what is causing this phenomenon? El Niño is partially responsible. This climate pattern, currently developing in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, is characterized by warm waters in the central and eastern Pacific, which typically weaken the trade winds in the tropics. The weakening of these winds can have an impact on both ocean and land temperatures worldwide. However, there are other factors at play in the warming of the oceans. The underlying cause is global warming, a continuous rise in sea surface and land temperatures over the past few decades due to increased greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere as a result of human activities. In the past three years, the opposite climate pattern, La Niña, has prevailed. La Niña, characterized by cooler waters in the equatorial Pacific, has a cooling effect globally and can mask the effects of global warming. With La Niña waning, the heat from global warming is becoming increasingly apparent. Additionally, the unusually low levels of Arctic sea ice in May and early June could also be contributing to the higher water temperatures. The loss of ice cover allows dark open water to absorb solar radiation that would have previously been reflected back into space by white ice.
These influences are playing out in various ways around the world, with sea surface temperatures consistently exceeding the average since satellite monitoring began. Notably, the eastern North Atlantic region is experiencing extraordinarily high temperatures. During my visit to the NORCE climate center in Norway in early June 2023, it was evident that the warm waters and mild winds in this area had resulted in a prolonged period of sunny and warm weather. Instead of the typical heavy rainfall, more than 70% of days were rain-free. Unfortunately, this has led to concerns of a severe drought similar to the one experienced in 2018, when agricultural yields were 40% below normal. The heat also caused delays in public transportation, such as the train from Bergen to Oslo, as the brakes of one car overheated due to the high temperatures.
Many scientists are currently studying the causes of the unusually high temperatures in the eastern North Atlantic. Weakened winds have resulted in a weaker Azores high, a semi-permanent high-pressure system over the Atlantic that affects European weather. This weakening may have been responsible for a decrease in the amount of dust from the Sahara reaching the ocean during spring, allowing for increased solar radiation absorption. Furthermore, the reduction in human-produced aerosol emissions in Europe and the United States, aimed at improving air quality, may have inadvertently contributed to the reduced cooling effect these aerosols typically have.
In the Indian Ocean, El Niño often leads to increased warming of the water in April and May, potentially dampening the crucial Indian monsoon. This appears to be occurring, as the monsoon has been much weaker than usual from mid-May to mid-June 2023. This poses a significant problem for South Asia, where agriculture relies heavily on the monsoon rainfall.
The Indian Ocean also experienced an intense and slow-moving cyclone in the Arabian Sea this year, which caused prolonged dry spells. Studies suggest that storms can sit over warmer waters for longer periods, gaining strength and pulling moisture towards their core. This phenomenon can deprive surrounding land masses of water, increasing the risk of droughts, wildfires, and marine heat waves.
In the Atlantic, the weakening trade winds associated with El Niño typically suppress hurricane activity. However, warm Atlantic temperatures can intensify these storms. The extent to which ocean heat, if it persists into the fall, will override El Niño’s effects on hurricane activity remains uncertain.
Marine heat waves can have devastating consequences for marine ecosystems, including coral bleaching and species displacement or extinction. Coral reefs, which serve as nurseries for fish and provide food for billions of people, are particularly vulnerable. The Galapagos Islands and coastlines of Colombia, Panama, and Ecuador are already at risk from severe bleaching and mortality due to this year’s El Niño. Additionally, invasive species, such as giant jellyfish in Asia and lionfish in the Mediterranean, are thriving in warmer waters and causing a loss of biodiversity in the Japan Sea and the eastern Mediterranean Sea.
The exceptional events that occurred during the spring of 2023 highlight the need to address ocean warming and its associated risks. To mitigate these risks, it is crucial to reduce baseline warming by limiting greenhouse gas emissions, especially those from fossil fuels, and strive towards a carbon-neutral planet. Adapting to a warming climate, where extreme events are more likely to occur, will require concerted efforts from individuals and communities worldwide.
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Jessica Irvine is a tech enthusiast specializing in gadgets. From smart home devices to cutting-edge electronics, Jessica explores the world of consumer tech, offering readers comprehensive reviews, hands-on experiences, and expert insights into the coolest and most innovative gadgets on the market.
