What the Dropping Apple Pro Vision Sales Really Mean

Recent reports show that Apple Vision Pro sales are dropping, only a few months after the spatial computing device became generally available to US customers.

According to Apple Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, supply chain data indicates that Apple has reduced its forecast Vision Pro shipments by almost half, suggesting the tech leader could be feeling the pinch of reduced sales.

This might come as a shock, considering all the hype leading up to the Vision Pro’s release and the slew of memes that emerged after early adopters started getting their headsets.

But what does it mean for Apple as an XR vendor, and the wider MR and spatial computing market overall? Does the drop in sales indicate that consumers aren’t ready for spatial computing? Or is it just a natural result of Apple’s high pricing?

I examined the latest data and reports to give you my behind-the-scenes insights.

How Well Has the Apple Vision Pro Sold So Far?

While reviews of the Apple Vision Pro have been mixed to say the least, I believe it genuinely does represent a revolution in the mixed reality headset market. Before the Vision Pro, “MR headsets” weren’t particularly commonplace. We had the Microsoft HoloLens and a handful of VR/AR alternatives, but true mixed reality was hard to come by.

Now, mixed reality is everywhere, with countless companies, including Meta, and Varjo investing in their own dedicated multi-functional devices. To me, this represents a growing demand for mixed reality on a broad scale, indicating that Apple probably made the right choice by branching out into a slightly underserved area of the XR market.

To build on that, it’s worth paying attention to the initial Apple Vision Pro sales numbers at launch. Despite costing an eye-watering $3,500 (around $3,000 more than the Meta Quest 3), pre-orders for the Vision Pro sold out almost instantly in January.

Within the first few days, Apple sold almost 180,000 units, around 100,000 more devices than the company had initially stocked for launch day. Clearly, the demand is there. If customers just wanted a basic mixed reality device, they could have just bought the Quest 3 at a fraction of the price.

The Worrisome Drop in Apple Vision Pro Sales

So, what’s going on with Apple Vision Pro sales today? As mentioned above, the analyst Ming-Chi Kuo said that Apple has revised its shipment predictions for 2024 in the last month or so. Initially, the company expected to sell over 800,000 units this year. Now, they’re predicting sales of around 400,000 to 450,000 units.

That doesn’t necessarily mean that Apple is cutting production of the Apple Vision Pro; however, just that it’s being more cautious with its sales projections. The Apple Vision Pro is still faring well in some circles, particularly in the enterprise and business landscape.

We’ve seen plenty of reports of specialists using the headset for surgery and product development. But for everyday XR fans, the price of the Apple Vision Pro may be too much to handle. In fact, according to Mark Gurman of Bloomberg, since the product’s release in February, stores have seen returns averaging from one or two to eight units per day.

Why are Apple Vision Pro Sales Dropping?

So, why are Apple Vision Pro sales dropping? I can only speculate as a reporter and tech enthusiast, but I have a few ideas. The first is that the economy isn’t in a great place right now, regardless of where you live. Studies show that consumer spending is dropping in the US (the only place the Apple Vision Pro is currently available).

Tech is one of the significant areas facing the pinch, with most customers focusing on paying for essentials rather than exciting new hardware. The Apple Vision Pro might be one of the best MR headsets I’ve ever reviewed, but its price makes it inaccessible to everyday consumers.

There are some other problems worth mentioning too, such as:

Limited Global Reach

As I mentioned above, Apple Vision Pro’s headset is currently only available in the US. Clearly, this limits the potential sales the device can achieve. For instance, in the UK, the government predicts that the AR/VR solutions market will increase to £62.5 billion by 2030.

Until Apple taps into these high-growth global market opportunities, it’s going to have limited revenue. Although Apple hasn’t revealed any upcoming “global launch” dates so far, some analysts have spotted evidence that the company could already be looking into expansion.

For instance, Apple has posted job listings for “Briefing Experience Specialists” throughout China, Japan, and Australia. This isn’t a guarantee that we’re going to be seeing the Apple Vision Pro launching worldwide anytime soon, but it seems likely that Apple will branch out into new markets.

All the company needs to do is ensure that its hardware and software comply with the regulations in other countries outside the US.

Growing Pains

As I mentioned in my review of the Apple Vision Pro, I think this headset is one of the most powerful and revolutionary in the XR market. However, like any innovative new solution, it does suffer from a few potential issues. One is the weight of the Apple Vision Pro, which makes the headset uncomfortable to wear for long periods.

Another is the unusual features, such as the ability to create “Personas” for Zoom and other video meetings, which are rarely entirely accurate. On top of that, the number of apps available for the Apple Vision Pro has been relatively limited for the last few months.

Although the company is investing in creating new apps specifically designed to take advantage of its spatial computing capabilities, users don’t get anything close to the selection offered by competitors like Meta. This could mean it’s harder for customers to see the use cases for the Apple Vision Pro right now, making a hefty investment less appealing.

Of course, growing pains won’t necessarily be a problem forever. Aside from expanding its app market with developer support, Apple is also working on upgrading its software to overcome user issues. Since the company owns its own proprietary OS, there’s no limit to what it can potentially adapt and improve.

This might not have a direct impact on the ergonomic issues of the Vision Pro, but it could make the headset more appealing in the months ahead.

The Market Appeal

Notably, I think one particular issue impacting Apple Vision Pro sales right now is that it’s not really designed for everyday consumers. While anyone can enjoy using the Vision Pro, the headset is clearly a premium solution with specific use cases.

I see the Apple Vision Pro as a business-level headset designed for companies ready to embrace the benefits of immersive technology for collaboration and creativity. Apple seems to be focusing on the enterprise landscape, too, creating specific apps for different sectors and even partnering with NVIDIA to bring the Omniverse to the headset.

However, many companies still don’t have the funding or expertise to invest fully in immersive technologies. IDC reported that AR/VR headset shipments dropped around 23.5% throughout 2023. However, in 2024, purchases are ramping up again, indicating Apple could have a resurgence to look forward to.

Additionally, if Apple does decide to release a cheaper version of its headset in the years ahead, as rumors suggest, this could allow the company to expand it’s market reach. A cheaper device would open the door to more consumer sales and increased investment from smaller businesses.

Will Apple Vision Pro Sales Continue to Fall?

It’s easy to get caught up in all the negative hype around Apple Vision Pro sales right now. Countless reporters have published articles predicting the death of the device based solely on reduced shipment numbers. Personally, I don’t agree with these ideas.

On the one hand, plenty of competitors are lining up to offer replacements for the Apple Vision Pro, promising more affordability and similar features. This indicates that Apple will have more competition in the months and years ahead.

However, most “more affordable” devices don’t fully compete with Apple’s spatial computing specs. Other, more powerful headsets, like the Varjo XR-4, share pricing similar to Vision Pro.

Additionally, it’s worth noting that many of Apple’s world-changing devices have experienced teething pains in the past. Plenty of people have seen the Apple iPhone, earbuds, and tablets as too expensive in the past, but they continue to generate massive sales today.

Bloomberg has even predicted that in the long-term, the Apple Vision Pro will deliver a market similar to the size of the iPad to Apple’s doors.

Ultimately, the declining Apple Vision Pro sales don’t really indicate the death of the headset, in my opinion. They’re pretty much par for the course. Apple didn’t actually expect to sell that many products immediately due to its high price. They’re also unable to produce these headsets in the same volumes as their other devices, so it would be unreasonable to expect millions of sales.

The Apple Vision Pro isn’t Doomed

In my opinion, the drop in Apple Vision Pro sales doesn’t mean much. It’s just a side-effect of a challenging economy, a complex market, and a high price tag. All of these things have the potential to change in the years ahead. In fact, the global market for mixed reality is already growing at a CAGR of 44.39% to a projected value of $157.37 by 2033.

Apple certainly doesn’t seem “worried” about the drop in sales for its spatial computing device. Although the company isn’t particularly forthcoming about sharing information, we’ve seen plenty of examples of them cancelling previous projects that failed to live up to expectations. For instance, the company abandoned its electric car project in 2024 despite investing $10 billion into the idea.

Moreover, a drop in sales doesn’t necessarily mean Apple isn’t going to reach its revenue goals. Even if Apple only ships 400,000 headsets in 2024, that adds up to around $1.48 billion in sales. That might not seem like much for a company as big as Apple, but it’s likely enough for Apple to continue viewing the Apple Vision Pro as a valuable part of its product portfolio.

I believe as the demand for mixed reality increases, particularly in the enterprise, and Apple expands its reach to global markets (while tackling a few headset teething pains), sales will begin to increase.

It’s difficult to know whether Apple Vision Pro sales will ever match the profitability of products like the iPhone. However, right now, it seems naive to suggest a drop in shipments will present a major problem to Apple, or prevent it from continuing its journey into the XR landscape.