A new study published in the Communications Earth & Environment journal has warned that the Campi Flegrei volcano in Italy, which has been dormant for nearly 500 years, has a “realistic possibility” of erupting again. Scientists from UCL and Italy’s National Research Institute for Geophysics and Volcanology have observed increased seismic activity in the region since 1950, with the volcano’s crust growing weaker and approaching a state of rupture. This development raises concerns not only about the potential impact on wildlife and crops, but also for the safety of the approximately half a million people living in the volcanic field, known as the ‘Phlegraean’ fields.
The volcanic field, near Naples in southern Italy, is known as the ‘Phlegraean’ fields in Greek or ‘burning’ fields in English
(Getty)
The eruption of Campi Flegrei around 39,000 years ago is believed by some to have contributed to the extinction of the Neanderthals through a subsequent winter. However, this theory is the subject of debate among scientists. Campi Flegrei is located in the southern part of Italy, near Naples, and consists of a vast region of supervolcanic calderas, which are large depressions formed by volcanic eruptions and collapses.
The last eruption in 1538 resulted in the release of molten rock and volcanic gases into the stratosphere, causing tsunamis of up to 100 feet in height. If a similar eruption were to occur today, sulfur and toxic ash would spread globally, potentially leading to a prolonged global winter and devastating effects on wildlife and crops.
Located in the south of the country, near Naples, Campi Flegrei is a sprawling region of supervolcanic calderas, which are large depressions that form when a volcano erupts and collapses
(Wikimedia)
The recent increase in the number of earthquakes, with over 600 recorded in April alone, raises concerns among local residents. Francesco Cammarota, a resident of the area, expressed fear and anticipation of an imminent eruption. An evacuation plan has been prepared for the half a million people living in the vicinity, particularly in Pozzuoli, which is currently at a yellow-level risk alert.
However, evacuating the densely populated area with narrow streets presents challenges. Mauro Antonio Di Vito, director of the INGV’s Vesuvius Observatory, stresses the need for better urban planning and structural resilience in the face of such natural threats.
Although scientists acknowledge the increasing likelihood of a rupture in Campi Flegrei’s crust, they emphasize that an eruption is not guaranteed. The accumulation of gases and rapid movement of magma through a crack in the crust are necessary conditions for an eruption to occur. Christopher Kilburn, the lead author of the study, provides cautious optimism, suggesting that the volcano may settle into a new cyclical pattern or return to a state of rest.
Stefano Carlino, a researcher at the Observatory, emphasizes the importance of preparedness for all possible outcomes and highlights the need for a cultural shift to prioritize resilience in vulnerable areas.
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