Quantum winter looms as companies face economic challenges

As the world eagerly anticipates the transformative potential of quantum computing, recent developments have painted a less optimistic picture. Despite the initial surge of interest and investment in the new technology, fervour has subsided in recent years.

The quantum computing industry, with its promise to revolutionise data storage and computation, finds itself facing substantial hurdles that have dampened the initial enthusiasm.

The primary stumbling block lies in the elusive quest for high-fidelity quantum bits or ‘qubits’. While various technologies have shown promise, the intricate engineering challenges and the current state of many companies have extended the timeline for achieving a network of reliable qubits.

The road to commercial-scale quantum computing, it seems, is longer than anticipated, with experts suggesting that it may not materialise until around 2027.

This narrative is supported by insights from GlobalData’s Thematic Intelligence: Quantum Computing report, highlighting the intricate challenges hindering progress in the quantum landscape.

The report underscores the divergence in strategies between global powers, notably the US and China. In the US, private companies have taken the lead in quantum development, while China has concentrated its efforts within state institutions.

Tech giants Alibaba and Baidu have withdrawn from the quantum market, redirecting their cutting-edge equipment towards national institutions.

Despite these setbacks, the anticipated progress in the coming years revolves around the development of noisy intermediate-scale quantum (NISQ) devices and modular systems, gradually becoming more potent and robust.

These advancements are expected to provide an edge in optimisation applications and hybrid systems, blurring the line between classical supercomputing and quantum capabilities.

However, the quantum winter looms large on the horizon, echoing the challenges faced by the development of artificial intelligence.

The lack of predictability, coupled with slow progress and extended timelines for commercialisation, poses a significant risk.

Leading technology companies remain committed to research, driven by realistic expectations of progress and the profound belief in quantum’s potential to revolutionise computing power.

Governments, recognising the geopolitical significance and cybersecurity implications, actively contribute funds to build strong internal ecosystems for national security. Countries such as the US, China, EU nations, the UK, Israel, and Australia are at the forefront of the race.

Estimates indicate that the quantum computing market, valued between $500m and $1bn in 2022, is projected to soar to $10bn between 2026 and 2030, with a compound annual growth rate between 30% and 50%.

However, these predictions come with a caveat – the nascent nature of the market makes them speculative, given the potential for unforeseen breakthroughs.

Currently, the market revolves around cloud-based quantum services provided by leading companies such as IBM, Google, Microsoft, Quantinuum, IonQ, Rigetti, D-Wave, and the recent entrant Amazon.