Modeling shows emerging mosquito control approach might be largely resistant to warming temperatures

A team of epidemiologists and engineers at the University of California, in collaboration with a colleague from QIMR Berghofer Medical Research Institute in Australia, has conducted modeling studies and found that the Wolbachia approach, used to slow the spread of mosquito-borne diseases (MBDs), is expected to withstand the challenges posed by climate change, at least in the near future.

In their study published in the journal Nature Climate Change, the research group utilized population dynamic models and data on mosquitoes and Wolbachia bacteria, along with temperature projections due to climate change. Eric Caragata, from the University of Florida, provides additional insights in a News & Views article within the same journal issue, highlighting the team’s research.

Prior research has shown that mosquitoes infected with the wMel strain of the bacterium Wolbachia are unable to transmit mosquito-borne viruses. This discovery has led to the release of Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes into the wild, with the hope that they will outcompete the non-infected populations and reduce the number of MBD-carrying viruses.

However, previous studies have indicated that the bacteria are sensitive to high temperatures. This raises concerns about the effectiveness of the Wolbachia approach in slowing MBDs, as climate change gradually increases temperatures in areas where MBDs are prevalent. In this new study, the research team aimed to investigate if this concern is valid.

The team used the Project Phase 5 climate change model to estimate the impact of gradually rising temperatures in Cairns, Australia, and Nha Trang, Vietnam, both Wolbachia test sites. The results showed that the Wolbachia approach should remain viable until at least the 2030s. Beyond that, the model suggests that increasing heat may diminish its effectiveness. The researchers conclude that further research is required to test Wolbachia under real-world conditions and determine its true survivability thresholds.

More information:
Váleri N. Vásquez et al, wMel replacement of dengue-competent mosquitoes is robust to near-term change, Nature Climate Change (2023). DOI: 10.1038/s41558-023-01746-w

Eric P. Caragata, Susceptibility of Wolbachia mosquito control to temperature shifts, Nature Climate Change (2023). DOI: 10.1038/s41558-023-01752-y

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