El Niño Playing Big Role In Winter Weather Outlook

In a year where we’ve already seen our fair share of weather extremes, all eyes are on the weather as we head into winter, which is setting up to start in a way we haven’t seen in a while. This is the first time in four years that we will head into winter with El Niño firmly in place. Depending on how the winter progresses, a strengthening El Niño could bring even more potential extreme weather in what the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has reported a record-breaking year with billion-dollar weather events and extreme temperatures. Businesses and municipalities need to keep an eye on the winter forecast as El Niño may be a bit of a wild card for this winter season.

Strong El Niños typically favor a warmer U.S. winter, while weak to moderate El Niños can be cold and snowy. With El Niño favored this winter, there will likely be warmer-than-average temperatures in much of the northern U.S., while conversely, parts of the southern U.S. may see temperatures somewhat below average this season. With a strong El Niño in place, December has the highest odds for widespread warmth, but if it weakens — or peaks early — the risk for widespread cold becomes possible later in the winter.

Taking a closer look at different regions of the country, the warmer-than-average temperatures are favored across the northern tier and much of the far western portions of the U.S. From the South-central Rockies to the southern Plains, there will be near-normal seasonal temperatures. The rest of the country has equal chances for below-, near-, or above-average seasonal temperatures.

We’ll see above-normal precipitation for much of the West, the southern Plains, Southeast, Gulf Coast, and lower mid-Atlantic, which is typical with El Niño. We will likely see drier-than-average conditions across the northern tier of the U.S., especially in the northern Rockies and High Plains and near the Great Lakes. Much of the north-central portion of the U.S. falls into the category of equal chances for below-, near-, or above-average seasonal total precipitation.

While it’s interesting to know what the weather holds for the coming months, looking at the seasonal outlook offers insights into the upcoming season for many industries like utilities, energy, aviation, and even retailers.

For example, this forecast helps inform utilities as they are really the first line of defense against severe winter weather. Many utilities prepare for winter by proactively replacing old equipment and strengthening infrastructure against cold temperatures. Utilities also look closely at outage response plans in the event of ice or wind damaging power lines during the winter.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) considers winter weather forecasts to better understand fuel prices and their implications. This winter, the EIA expects natural gas prices to be significantly lower than last year for nearly 50% of homes that use natural gas for heating.

This weather outlook is also insightful for transportation departments, as winter always brings transportation challenges with snow and ice. The forecast can help with staffing decisions as well as salt and brine purchases. The above-normal precipitation levels in the country’s southern portion could impact winter road maintenance operations, especially concerning icy road conditions, however the good news here is most of this area should see normal temperatures. Along the boundary between this relatively mild air and the colder storm track to the north, precipitation decisions and transitions from warm to colder and back will also require careful monitoring and frequent adjustments. Finally, like last winter, there will be the potential for at least several very moisture-laden storms over portions of the Southwest US, causing flooding and mudslides.

With a strengthening El Nino and more potential climate extremes in an already record-breaking year, making more informed decisions about the weather can help a business or municipality keep people safer and companies run more efficiently.

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