Home Science East Atlantic Brewing Storms Make Hurricane Season Resemble August Rather Than June

East Atlantic Brewing Storms Make Hurricane Season Resemble August Rather Than June

Topline

A tropical depression and another disturbance in the eastern Atlantic Ocean are presenting a unique and potentially unprecedented situation early in hurricane season. This comes just weeks after forecasters predicted a below-average season.

Key Facts

Tropical Depression Three is forecasted to intensify into Tropical Storm Bret in the Atlantic Ocean, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Forecasters predict that the system will reach tropical storm intensity by late Monday and potentially strengthen into the first Category 1 hurricane of the season by Wednesday.

The storm could impact the Lesser Antilles, including islands like Barbados, Dominica, and Saint Lucia, as early as this weekend. The National Hurricane Center has advised Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands to monitor the storm.

Forecasters are also keeping a close eye on another system developing behind Tropical Depression Three, which could potentially become Tropical Storm Cindy.

The National Hurricane Center gives this system a 50% chance of developing into at least a tropical depression within the next week. Conditions are deemed favorable for further development.

Surprising Fact

In June, it is highly unusual for tropical systems to form in the central and eastern Atlantic Ocean. These types of storms are typically not seen until the peak of hurricane season in August and September. The last time an Atlantic storm formed in June and reached hurricane strength in the tropical Atlantic was in 1933. This was revealed by tweet from meteorologist Philip Klotzbach of Colorado State University.

Key Background

In their outlook for the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicted a near-normal season. This contradicted the earlier forecast from Philip Klotzbach and Colorado State, which had predicted a below-average season. The main reason for the differing forecasts is the presence of El Nino, which increases wind shear and suppresses storm formation. However, the Atlantic Ocean is also experiencing record-high sea surface temperatures. NOAA’s prediction includes the possibility of 12 to 17 named storms, with five to nine potentially becoming hurricanes and one to four developing into major hurricanes.

Big Number

In the 2022 hurricane season, there were a total of 14 named storms, according to NOAA. Eight of these storms became hurricanes, and two of them reached major hurricane status.

Further Reading

Forbes has reported on the potential tropical storm in the Gulf on the first day of the hurricane season.

 

Reference

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