Data suggest holding Trump accountable will not threaten American democracy

As the possibility of a Fulton County indictment of former President Donald Trump looms, law enforcement in Atlanta is preparing for potential violence. Orange barricades have been placed to restrict access to the entrance of the county courthouse.

Concerns have been raised about the likelihood of another incident similar to January 6th, raising questions about the level of threat to American democracy. However, new data from the Polarization Research Lab suggests that the public does not see the indictment of a former president as a reason to abandon democratic principles or support violent retribution.

The study, conducted by researchers at Dartmouth College, the University of Pennsylvania, and Stanford University, tracked public attitudes towards democratic norms, political violence, and partisan hatred. Over the course of nearly a year, daily tracking polls were conducted with nearly 30,000 survey interviews.

The findings reveal that 97% of Americans, regardless of party affiliation, oppose political violence, and the majority disapprove when politicians violate political norms.

Reaction to the June 12 Indictments

Support for political violence remained stable before and after the June 12 federal indictment of Trump and co-defendant Walt Naruta. Most Americans reject even non-violent acts of protest.

Following the indictment, there was a temporary surge in positive regard for their own parties among both Democrats and Republicans. However, this effect lasted only a week, and each party’s dislike for the other remained unchanged.

The indictments did lead to an increased appetite among Republicans for violating political norms, but this increase was short-lived and primarily driven by a desire to censor news networks that they viewed as unfair to their party. The effect disappeared after seven days, and by the end of June, Republicans were less supportive of norm violations compared to the period before the indictment.

A Divided America

The indictments against Trump did not permanently alter American attitudes towards democracy, but there are still real threats. According to Yphtach Lelkes, Co-Director of the Polarization Research Lab, “Trump rose to power in a fractured America and while he contributed to divides, they existed before his presidency and will continue in the years to come.”

The research data shows that the majority of everyday Americans have negative views of the opposing party, lack trust in their politicians, feel that their government is unresponsive to their needs, and a significant portion supports at least one violation of democratic norms.

While it is possible that the trends observed in the data could trigger mob behavior similar to the events of January 6th, the overwhelming majority of Americans would reject both violence and attacks on democratic norms. Lelkes concludes, “As much as American politics can be crude and juvenile, when it comes to support for democracy itself, our data show that Americans are remarkably adult-like.”

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