25 November 2023, Lower Saxony, Bad Zwischenahn: Northern lights dance over the Zwischenahner Meer … [+]
UPDATE: original quotes were added to reflect exactly where aurora will be visible in the U.S. as well as information about the two models predicting solar activity.
Scientists think a severe geomagnetic storm will strike Earth this weekend, potentially triggering significant displays of the northern lights at mid-latitudes—and that means as far south as Oregon, Wyoming and Illinois.
Experts sounded the alarm Tuesday after a solar flare caused three separate coronal mass ejections on the sun, all aimed toward Earth, creating a rare “halo CME.”
A CME is a cloud of magnetic fields and charged particles from the sun that streams into space at up to 1,900 miles (3,000 kilometers) per second.
G3+ Geomagnetic Storm Predicted
“Space weather forecasters are predicting a potential G3+ geomagnetic storm later this week,” said Dr. Ryan French, a solar physicist at the National Solar Observatory (NSO) in Boulder, Colorado and the author of The Sun: Beginner’s Guide To Our Local Star, in an email. “In the U.S. a G3 storm arriving at local night could give aurora as far south as Oregon, Wyoming and Illinois!”
In his book, French writes that while G2 storms can be seen as far south as New York and Idaho, for G3 it’s Illinois and Oregon and for G4 it’s Alabama and northern California.
However, the G3 storm prediction is based on the NASA model while the competing model from the NOAA predicts a slightly lower G2 storm.
When To See The Northern Lights This Week
According to the NASA model, Earth will be struck by a CME at midday Universal Time (around 7:00 a.m. EST) on Friday, December 1. That makes Friday night the best time to look for aurora. However, SpaceWeather.com states that it could arrive the day before, making Thursday and Friday the best nights to go out looking for aurora.
A CME can take a few days to travel from the sun to the Earth, where the charged particles accelerate down the field lines of Earth’s magnetic field. The result is a geomagnetic storm, often resulting in an oval of green and red around our planet’s poles and down to mid-latitudes if it’s strong enough.
The effects of a solar flare take just eight minutes to travel from the sun at light speed and can cause a radio blackout.
Predicting The Aurora
The intensity of aurora displays is tricky to predict in advance, but this week, we could see a severe geomagnetic storm. While G1 and G2-class geomagnetic storms are relatively common, G3 and even G4-class storms—rated strong and severe, respectively—are being predicted.
SpaceWeather.com reports that the CME that strikes on Friday could sweep up one of several slower CMEs ahead of it to become a “cannibal CME.”
“Along with two earlier storms already en route means we have a 1,2,3-punch,” said space weather physicist Dr. Tamitha Skov, on X. “If the magnetic field is oriented correctly, expect aurora to reach deep into mid-latitudes … G3+ conditions are possible with this storm series.”
‘The G3 prediction is the most probable forecast, but a complicated one based on the number of CMEs expected to arrive in a short window,” said French. “This could create conditions greater than a G3 (in which we’d see the aurora even further south), or equally, give us less than expected.”
How To See The Northern Lights
Sightings of aurora have become more frequent in recent months because the sun is approaching the “solar maximum” phase of its 11-year solar cycle. However, sightings from regions south of the Arctic Circle tend only to get glimpses of aurora as a faint glow on the northern horizon, so that’s where aurora hunters should look from North America. It also helps to have a dark sky away from light pollution (check the Light Pollution Map), which can cause observers to confuse aurora with city lights and the afterglow of sunset.
For the best chance, plan a trip in the next two to three years to the Arctic Circle (65- to 70-degree north latitudes) in Alaska, northern Canada or northern Scandinavia (Norway, Finland, Sweden and Iceland), where more frequent and brighter displays are more likely.
Wishing you clear skies and wide eyes.
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Jessica Irvine is a tech enthusiast specializing in gadgets. From smart home devices to cutting-edge electronics, Jessica explores the world of consumer tech, offering readers comprehensive reviews, hands-on experiences, and expert insights into the coolest and most innovative gadgets on the market.
