The Increase of Climate Migration to Flood-Prone Areas
According to data from Redfin, there has been a significant increase in the number of people moving into counties vulnerable to flooding in the last two years. This includes popular beach destinations along the coasts of Florida. The data shows a 100% increase in migration to these areas, with 384,000 more people moving in than moving out. This migration trend can be attributed to the combined effects of the pandemic and the affordability crisis in the United States. Despite the risks associated with living in flood-prone areas, people are choosing to relocate due to the high cost of living in expensive cities.
In this aerial view, the aftermath of Hurricane Ian can be seen in Fort Myers Beach, Florida. The Category 4 hurricane caused extensive damage to the area, highlighting the risks of living in flood-prone regions. (Photo by Win McNamee/Getty Images)
Key Facts
The number of people moving into counties ranked in the top 10% for flood risk has increased by 103% in the years 2021 and 2022 compared to the previous two years, as reported by Redfin. This real estate brokerage and data collector analyzed at-risk counties and compared the migration patterns of people moving in and out of these areas.
Researchers at Redfin have speculated that remote work opportunities and record-low mortgage rates during the pandemic have motivated Americans to leave expensive coastal cities in search of more affordable housing or more desirable climates, such as those found in Florida and Arizona. Despite concerns about extreme weather conditions like heatwaves or fire risks, people are willing to take the risk for the sake of better living conditions.
For instance, the median home price in San Francisco in June was $1.4 million, while in Fort Myers, Florida, it was $410,000, and in Gilbert, Arizona, it was $625,000. The lower housing costs in these flood-prone areas are attracting individuals who are looking for more affordable options.
Daryl Fairweather, the Deputy Chief Economist at Redfin, pointed out that humans tend to prioritize immediate benefits over long-term risks. This cognitive bias leads people to overlook property damage and decreased property value associated with living in flood-prone regions. Additionally, risks such as climate change are difficult to measure, making it easier for individuals to discount their impact.
New homes under construction in Gilbert, Arizona. The median home price in Gilbert is $625,000, compared to $1.4 million in San Francisco. Some individuals are willing to face extreme heat for more affordable living options. (Photo by Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)
Big Number
The migration patterns to Lee County, Florida, including Fort Myers, have experienced a significant change. Despite the high flood risk in this county, which has resulted in parts of the area being underwater during Hurricane Ian in September 2022, there has been a 65% increase in migration compared to the previous two years. Approximately 60,000 more people have moved into Lee County, where half the homes are at high flood risk.
Boats piled up in Fort Myers Beach, Florida, after Hurricane Ian passed through the area. The affordable housing options in this region have attracted new residents, despite the flood risk. (Photo by Joe Raedle/Getty Images)
Contra
While many Americans are willing to move to flood-prone areas for better living conditions, there are exceptions. Two areas identified by Redfin that have seen people leaving instead of migrating to flood-prone regions are Paradise, California, and parts of Louisiana. Orleans Parish and Jefferson Parish in Louisiana have faced high flood risk, and in the past two years, around 15,000 more people have left these areas than arrived. A similar trend is observed in Paradise, California, which was devastated by the Camp Fire five years ago. The county has experienced a net outflow of approximately 2,000 people, with a significant outflow of 17,000 people shortly after the fire in 2019 and 2020.
Aerial views of New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina. Despite the high flood risk, people are choosing to leave the region after experiencing disaster. (Photo by Dina Rudick/The Boston Globe via Getty Images)
Further Reading
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