During the summer, temperatures globally reached record highs on July 4, marking one of the hottest days ever recorded on Earth, according to data from the U.S. National Centers for Environmental Prediction. The average global temperature on that day was approximately 63 degrees Fahrenheit, making it one of the warmest days in the past 125,000 years.
Anthony Lupo, an expert in atmospheric sciences and the interim climatologist at the University of Missouri, sheds light on the interconnectedness of extreme weather patterns affecting the Midwest and causing a severe drought.
What is the pattern of droughts in Missouri over the past few years?
In the Midwest, droughts take a long time to develop, often spanning months. This year is no exception. Over the past few years, there have been fluctuations between El Nino and La Nina, which are climate patterns in the Pacific Ocean that impact global weather. In 2020, we experienced a La Nina pattern, which has persisted since then. In July 2022, the Midwest faced extreme drought conditions. However, experts anticipated that the switch to El Nino in 2023 would bring more regular rainfall and end the drought. Unfortunately, that did not happen. While statistically, El Nino favors good summers, there is still a small chance of a dry summer. That’s what we are witnessing this year.
What atmospheric event marked the beginning of this summer’s drought?
The onset of drought conditions can be attributed to an atmospheric event that occurred in early June 2022. The jet stream made a sudden shift, altering its energy. This shift happens approximately every eight to 10 days, and on average, about 30 times a year. Stable jet stream conditions facilitate accurate weather forecasting, but during these shifting periods, forecasting becomes challenging.
How do extreme drought conditions impact agriculture in the Midwest?
Last year, the drought had a negative impact on agricultural production, leading to lower crop yields. Currently, the crops are fair because they have received just enough moisture to sustain them this summer. However, there is no significant reservoir of water beneath the surface, and the subsurface remains dry from last year. As a result, there is a risk of agricultural production falling short if there is a prolonged dry spell in July or August.
What kind of weather can people expect for the rest of the summer?
Prepare for rising temperatures. Currently, we have been fortunate to experience slightly warmer temperatures than usual, but still within the range of normal. However, if we start to have a streak of 100-degree days with low humidity, that will change.
How does hot and dry weather affect people’s health?
When the weather is both hot and humid, nighttime temperatures tend to remain warm, which poses a danger to both people and animals. On the other hand, dry conditions typically result in more comfortable nighttime temperatures. It is crucial for the body to have relief and proper rest, including a break from the heat to prevent heat-related fatalities.
The heat also has an impact on infrastructure. When it gets extremely dry, the soil dries up, causing shifts in the foundations of buildings and water systems. Ecologically, foresters predict increased tree mortality during these dry periods, not only for the current year but also for the next two years. This can have long-term effects on the local environment.
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Q&A: What’s causing the severe Midwestern drought? (2023, July 19)
retrieved 19 July 2023
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