A study recently projected mean sea level rises on the Finnish coast by 2100. In the worst-case scenario, the sea level in Helsinki will rise by over half a meter.
The melting of glaciers and ice sheets caused by global warming and the thermal expansion of sea water is causing the sea level to rise at an increasing rate. However, in Finland, the land uplifts are protecting the coast from rising sea levels. But, in the future, the speed of land uplift will not be enough to compensate for sea level rise entirely. The coastal flood risk is expected to increase, particularly on the southern coast of Finland, by the end of the century.
The Finnish Meteorological Institute and Aalto University jointly published a study that calculated new projections for future mean sea level in Finland by 2100. The study considered various emission scenarios representing different ways of how greenhouse gas emissions by humanity might develop. The rate of land uplift is faster on the coast of the Bothnian Bay. According to the most probable scenario, the sea level in Vaasa is not expected to rise during this century.
However, the greatest effects of sea level rise will only be felt after 2100. If greenhouse gas emissions are not mitigated quickly, the sea level may increase by several meters over the following centuries, leading to significant impacts in Finland. The study is published in the journal Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences.
Emission trends affect future projections
The new projections are based on extensive international research data and climate model results. They have also taken into account special characteristics of the Baltic Sea region, such as the effect of changes in the wind climate on water exchange between the Baltic Sea and the Atlantic Ocean in the Danish straits.
Glaciers and ice sheets may melt faster than expected
The projections have calculated comprehensively for different probability distributions, considering the possibility of higher sea level rise in high-risk applications. There are major uncertainties associated with sea level rise projections, especially with regards to the melting of the ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica, particularly the latter since the melting of Antarctica would have a full effect in the region.
More information:
Havu Pellikka et al, Probabilistic projections and past trends of sea level rise in Finland, Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (2023). DOI: 10.5194/nhess-23-1613-2023
Citation:
Land uplift protects the Finnish coast from rising sea levels, but not endlessly (2023, May 9)
retrieved 9 May 2023
from https://phys.org/news/2023-05-uplift-finnish-coast-sea-endlessly.html
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