Science: Home Runs Are Becoming Easier to Hit Due to Climate Change

Xander Bogaerts made his debut home run for the San Diego Padres at Petco Park on April 1, 2023, as Major League Baseball implements new rules to speed up games and increase action. Meanwhile, a study published in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society reveals that climate change has contributed to making home runs slightly easier to hit. The study analyzed over 100,000 major league games from 1962 to 2019 and attributed 577 home runs hit between 2010 and 2019 to warming caused by climate change. Climate scientist Christopher Callahan, who led the research team, explains that although the effect has been small to date, it will become more substantial as climate change progresses through the century. He says that the study illustrates the pervasive and subtle influence of climate change on our daily lives. The researchers found that raising average global temperatures has reduced the density of air by decreasing the number of air molecules between the ball and the stands, which results in reduced air resistance and more distance for the ball to travel. Notably, the study found that 58 home runs per year between 2010 and 2019—577 in total—would likely not have made it out of the park without the assistance of climate change. The study also explored different scenarios to estimate the effect of climate change-induced warming on home runs all the way out to 2100 and found that if greenhouse gas emissions keep climbing and major changes are not made to how baseball is played, climate homers could account for nearly 10 percent (437 home runs) of the yearly total in the majors.

 

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