The India Meteorological Department (IMD), which was in the news over issuing a red alert after heavy rains started in Tamil Nadu this month, plans to deploy high-performance computing to improve extreme weather forecast ahead of the completion of the agency’s 150 years in 2025.
Union earth sciences ministry secretary M Ravichandran cited the need for more understanding of changes in weather patterns and said they will install advanced computing systems to do that. “These can provide very high-resolution observations…improving from 12 km to 6 km resolution. We have some of the world’s highest-resolution models…at par with any other country. We are not inferior to anybody,” said Ravichandran in response to a question on plans to improve the forecast of extreme weather events such as the Tamil Nadu rainfall.
Ravichandran, who was speaking on the sidelines of the launch of IMD’s new logo on Tuesday ahead of its foundation day on January 15, cited the proximity to the tropics and said the sudden weather patterns are more dynamic than in other places. “We need to put more effort compared to extra-tropics or polar regions.”
He said there was a forecast for very high rainfall for Tamil Nadu but IMD could not say five days in advance how extreme rain would be. “…90 cm rainfall event [parts of Thoothukudi recorded 95 cm rainfall in 24 hours on December 17] nobody expected and no model predicted. We looked at a suite of models from Europe, the US, Japan, India, etc but no models managed to capture this kind of extreme rain. This is because of the coastal influence and sudden development of convection. We are putting effort to see how this barrier can be overcome.”
IMD has faced flak for failing to forecast extreme weather. Tamil Nadu chief minister M K Stalin blamed the weather office for failing to forecast heavy rains in the state on December 17 and 18 and issuing the red alert after the downpour started.
Union earth sciences minister Kiren Rijiju, who launched the new logo, said cyclones and severe weather conditions would cause disasters and kill thousands. “Our forecasting system improved and we have adequate time for preparation.” He added there have not been many casualties due to cyclones. “There are still damages to property and other resources.”
He cited the glacial lake burst in Sikkim and cloudburst in Himachal Pradesh and the loss of lives they caused and said IMD was striving to predict them. “…there is no technology to predict cloudbursts because they happen in very small regions with a sudden accumulation of the water particles that bring downpours. We are looking to install a lot of observatories.”
Rijiju said IMD is considering “weather management” through geoengineering processes such as cloud seeding to deal with extreme weather. “We can manage the weather. The technology is there…It is very interesting and has to be considered carefully. Weather management may sound unnatural but for the safety of humanity if required it can be used. It has moral and environmental implications. It is a very sensitive matter.”
Ravichandran said rain can also be suppressed with cloud seeding.
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