Preliminary data indicates that world daily temperature records have been shattered this week.
Experts say that although these estimates may not be as precise as monthly and yearly reports from leading agencies, the modeling tools used to produce them can serve as an early warning system for extreme heat events.
Who is producing the data?
The University of Maine has developed Climate Reanalyzer, an online tool that displays the curves of average global temperature for each day since 1979.
On Monday, July 3, the curve reached a high of 17.01 degrees Celsius (62.62 degrees Fahrenheit). This record was surpassed on Tuesday with 17.18°C (62.92°F), and again on Thursday with 17.23°C (63.01°F).
Europe’s Copernicus Climate Change Service has a similar tool, which later confirmed the records of Monday and Tuesday, although with slightly different figures—16.88°C (62.38°F) and 17.03°C (62.65°F), respectively.
How do they arrive at their figures?
These estimates are produced through a combination of actual temperature measurements from ground stations, satellites, and other sources, along with computer modeling.
While the University of Maine relies on public model output data from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) for forecasting, NOAA itself has stated that it cannot validate the methodology or conclusion of the University of Maine’s analysis.
The fact that both results align is reassuring, according to Zeke Hausfather, a climatologist at Berkeley Earth.
The European tool is considered state of the art by the wider community, Hausfather added.
What are the limitations?
“These are estimates and unofficial records,” said Sean Birkel, a climate scientist at the University of Maine who developed Climate Reanalyzer.
Birkel emphasized the importance of focusing on annual and monthly timescales, as these reports undergo greater checks and verifications compared to daily records, which rely on near real-time information.
Copernicus separately released its analysis for the past month, declaring it the hottest June on record. A similar monthly report from NOAA is expected next week.
Climate experts generally prefer to analyze long-term trends and changes to eliminate variations related to weather.
The concept of a global average temperature may not be as meaningful for the general public, as “no one lives in the global average,” according to Hausfather.
What is the value of daily record estimates?
Despite their limitations, daily records have value in identifying extreme events with climate significance, said Birkel.
While temperature at the daily timescale is considered weather and not climate, incorporating data from 40 years provides important climate context, he added.
Omar Baddour, chief of climate monitoring at the World Meteorological Organization, stated that these provisional records provide further evidence of global climate pattern shifts due to climate change and the evolving El Nino episode.
Hausfather believes that this may be a sign that we are entering a very hot period, with June already being the warmest June on record. He also predicts that 2023 as a whole will likely be the warmest year since records began in the mid-1800s.
© 2023 AFP
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World daily temperature records smashed—here’s how we know (2023, July 8)
retrieved 8 July 2023
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